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The Draft Plan Bay Area is like a sausage factory, you don't want to see what is in it or how it is made.

It all starts with an analysis, by a group of people that may have an agenda or special interest influence,  looking at the  potential future jobs of the entire USA and deciding how much the total Bay Area 9 counties will get of these jobs over the next 30 years. The odds of being accurate over 30 years with a single projected number are likely similar to  winning the lottery, but the odds for winning the lottery are likely even better.

This guessing about a very large delta over 30 years is then allocated down to the jurisdiction level (counties, cites and unincorporated areas). The  chances of this projection being correct are astronomical to put it mildly, probably the same  as being struck by an asteroid.   Impossible is reasonable to assume.

This is Plan Bay Area. It is then adopted by the California Department of  Housing and Community Development (HCD).  HCD immortalizes this farfetched number into the amount of housing that needs to be built.  Since there is no  statutory way to correct HCD's Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA), land must be rezoned by the local jurisdictions to comply. Checkmate. The developers, builders and institutional investors win and all in the name of the New Urbanism.

This is the definition of flawed top down planning and does not take into consideration local general plans,  fiscal conditions, funding for services, water, sewer, schools or any other local issues.

The RHNA numbers provided by ABAG that are the basis for the Draft Plan Bay Area are flawed. This is the result of projections for population, jobs and RHNA used in these reports being inaccurate and significantly overestimated RHNA allocations for the jurisdictions.  The basis for this conclusion is built on various analysis of the overall projections for California, the Bay Area as well as a sample jurisdiction.   Thus, the Draft Bay Area Plan report needs to be discarded and a new report should be completed using correct RHNA allocations to jurisdictions built on accurate projections and take into consideration critical local conditions and issues.

Make your voice heard on July 18, 2013 before ABAG votes on this plan, contact you county supervisor and/or city council.